Much of our new-found knowledge about the coronavirus COVID-19 originates from research and studies done by so-called experts. One of the first studies published by the famous Imperial College London projected over 500,000 deaths in the U.K. alone. This report scared the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government but according to The New York Times, it had a similar impact on President Donald Trump’s White House. The Imperial College study came to define U.K. public health policy. The U.K. locked down its entire economy.
It was far less widely reported, however, that within 3 weeks of the original publication, the authors of the study revised their estimates. The newly revised projected number of deaths in the U.K. this time: 20,000. This is an astonishing 96% drop from the first forecast within 20 days!
How can they get this so wrong and create a completely new situation within just 3 weeks?
Then, the Imperial College team also revealed that roughly 2/3 of the 20,000 coronavirus victims in the U.K. were expected to die within a year anyway based on their age and health condition.
The Imperial College defends its poor projection and calculation model simply with a quite arrogant statement that “We have no problem being accused of being too careful,” without even considering the implications such damaging reports can have on billions of people worldwide. Being too careful is not a free option in our real and global world. The Imperial College team’s miscalculations may have implications that are both, more deadly and more costly, than the COVID-19 virus itself. But who will be held accountable for creating the panic and therefore wrong measures by governments and politicians?
Sven Franssen