The CNN Fear & Greed Indicator

Today the CNN Fear & Greed Indicator stands at 9 (Extreme Fear). As a Contrarian I use this indicator to either become careful and rather sell stocks (Extreme Greed Status) or I start buying stocks when there is fear in the market (Extreme Fear). To get into the market I usually sell (naked) stock index put options. Once we hit Extreme Fear status stocks are usually very volatile and we see big swings in stock market. This causes option premiums to rise. Once I have picked my levels that I analysed and considered cheap for stocks, I sell strike prices of put options just above these levels. Most of the times the options expire worthless and I bag the premiums paid, just for waiting. Once assigned, I have a comfortable position because I bought at levels I believe stocks are a bargain and I wish to owe them anyway.

Here is CNN’s own description of the Fear & Greed Index:

Investors are driven by two emotions: Fear and Greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices way too far. So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed index makes it clear.

We look at 7 indicators:

•Stock Price Momentum: The S&P 500 (SPX) versus its 125-day moving average

•Stock Price Strength: The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange

•Stock Price Breadth: The volume of shares trading in stocks on the rise versus those declining.

•Put and Call Options: The put/call ratio, which compares the trading volume of bullish call options relative to the trading volume of bearish put options

•Junk Bond Demand: The spread between yields on investment grade bonds and junk bonds

•Market Volatility: The VIX (VIX), which measures volatility

•Safe Haven Demand: The difference in returns for stocks versus Treasuries

For each indicator, we look at how far they’ve veered from their average relative to how far they normally veer. We look at each on a scale from 0 – 100. The higher the reading, the greedier investors are being, and 50 is neutral.
Then we put all the indicators together – equally weighted – for a final index reading.

When the S&P 500 (SPX) plummeted to a three-year low on Sept. 17, 2008 – the height of the financial crisis — the Fear and Greed index sank to 12. The index gained some ground to 28 before stocks finally bottomed out on March 9, 2009 and the latest bull market began.
Most recently, in the first quarter of 2012, stocks staged their best run in decades, and the index showed pure greed.