We have somehow reached a place where everything is turned into an argument for more restrictions. If infections rise, we need a tougher lockdown. If they fall, the lockdown is working, so we should keep it. The lockdown was initially sold across the world as the only way to avert a genocide. The cost of the closures (in terms of lost liberty, lost livelihoods, and, indeed, lost lives through non-coronavirus health conditions) was so big, there was no other way to sell it than: “Do it or all hospitals will be overwhelmed and we would have to dig mass graves!”. Now, We are seeing a determination to justify the huge losses imposed by the lockdown. It is beyond depressing to see scientists give in to these basic cognitive biases.
But there were much better alternatives! But strangely, there are no comments arguing that Sweden with its laissez-faire approach is less at risk than most other places. Lockdown enthusiasts have switched from their prediction of Sweden heading for disaster, suddenly to that we could not follow the Swedish approach because Sweden is different.
There are 3 wrong assumptions about Sweden made by lockdown enthusiast:
1.) You can’t compare others to Sweden. It has a low population density.
2.) Sweden hasn’t succeeded. It has had more deaths per capita than neighbouring countries.
3.) Sweden has taken an economic hit, too.
To counter the specific arguments:
1.) Sweden has a low population density if you divide its population by its land area. But Swedes are not evenly spaced out across their country. Most of them live in towns and cities — 85% of the population occupies 2% of its surface area.
2.) Sweden has had more coronavirus fatalities than other Nordic states. But the lockdown was only “to flatten the curve” and intended to buy time. Infection rates are now rising faster in the rest of Scandinavia.
3.) The argument that the Swedish economy has taken as bad a hit as everyone else is nonsense. Obviously, a medium-sized country will be affected by a global downturn, as well as by its own voluntary distancing measures. But Sweden got off more lightly than most. Its GDP dropped by 8.3% in the second quarter of this year (compared to 2019). In the United States, the drop was 9.5%, in Germany 11.7%, in Canada 13.5%, in Britain 21.7%, and in Spain 22.1%. In entire 2020 Sweden is expected to see a 3.3% contraction, compared to 4.3% for the U.S., 5.8% for the United Kingdom, and 8.3% for the eurozone.
Social-democratic Sweden still stands, stolid like a rock, sensible, silently and simply rebuking the doubters by its success.
Sven Franssen