Stocks follow predictable trends, just like seasons. These trends are accurate regardless of what mainstream media says.
Successful investing is built on understanding probabilities. If we know the most likely outcome, we can position ourselves accordingly.
Let’s have a look at the month April from an investment perspective:
April is the best month of the year for stocks. Over the past 25 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 2.84% gain in the month. The only other month with a performance even close to that is November. Additionally it closes reliably positive, year after year. No other month has a higher probability of success. No matter what is happening at the macro level or on the global stage, U.S. stocks move higher in April. In fact, since 1993, the Dow has finished April lower only six times. That’s an impressive 79.3% success rate. And the biggest loss for the Dow in April was 4.38% back in 2002.
April is historically the best month of the year for stocks in terms of returns. The last time the Dow ended the month with a loss, was 17 years ago.
In investing, there are no sure things. But U.S. stocks heading for monthly gains in April is as close as it gets.
Sven Franssen